Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates unchanged -


Rates remained basically unchanged last week, not really moving much day-to-day. There was little economic data to worry about, and it was a holiday week with markets closing early on Thursday and closed Friday


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may improve -



Although rates will likely start the week worse, there are lots of opportunities to see rates improve by the end of the week with help from data showing a weakening labor market which could support the Fed cutting rates sooner, say in June.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There is at least one report each day this week involving jobs and the labor market, which could cause mortgage rates to move day-to-day. Friday brings the most important data, with the highest chance to move rates. Data showing a weakening labor market will help rates, stronger than expected data will hurt rates.
• The Fed: Mortgage rates won't improve much unless markets believe the Fed will cut rates soon. Right now, Fed officials have said they aren't in a hurry to cut rates until they see clear confirmation that inflation is still moving lower. We need signs of softening labor market and weaker economy to create urgency for the Fed to cut rates.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Rates moved slightly higher last week when strong economic and labor data made it less likely the Fed will need to cut rates until later in the year, and will likely cut rates less than the three times that was recently projected at the last Fed meeting.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may get worse -



Rates are more likely to creep higher this week, especially if the inflation data is disappointing, as markets adjust to the idea that the Fed may hold off on any rate cuts until much later in the year.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: This week brings important inflation data, which is not likely to be too helpful to mortgage rates. Although economists are projecting a small improvement in inflation, it would take a surprisingly low reading to help rates to rally, and that is unlikely to happen.
• The Fed: Markets are starting to bet on only two Fed rate cuts this year as Fed officials continue to say that the strong economy and labor market along with stubborn inflation make it too early to even consider cutting rates. The Fed will only need to consider cutting rates if we see signs of a weakening economy and a softening labor market that needs stimulus.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Rates moved quite a bit higher last week when inflation readings came in stronger than expected, showing that inflation increased rather than dropped. Markets reacted to the data by dropping the number of Fed rate cuts forecasted for later this year.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may get worse -



Rates are likely to creep higher this week as markets adjust to expectations that the Fed may cut rates only twice or even once this year. Strong economic and labor data along with increasing inflation have shelved the idea that any rate cuts will happen before September at the earliest.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Fed speakers: Lots of Fed officials will be out speaking this week, likely sharing the message that the Fed does not need to cut rates yet.
• The Fed: Markets are now expecting only two or even one Fed rate cut this year as Fed officials continue to say that the strong economy and labor market along with stubborn inflation make it too early to even consider cutting rates. Mortgage rates won't move lower unless/until expectations grow again that the Fed will have to cut rates.
• Economic data: Not a lot of data this week, and what we've seen already was bad for mortgage rates.

And the RATES?????

@glenls People just keep on spending, despite the price. Crazy market right now.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates unchanged -


With little economic data and with traders waiting for this week's Fed meeting, rates moved slightly day-to-day but the moves were small and rates ended the week basically unchanged.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could be volatile -


This week brings major labor market data and the Fed meeting and press conference. Although we try to forecast what this will mean for mortgage rates, depending on what is said and how the data comes out this week we could see mortgage rates move significantly up or down. A good week to stay in touch with your mortgage professional.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: Wednesday brings the first of many jobs reports for the week, and Friday brings the BLS jobs data which will have the greatest effect on mortgage rates. Continued signs of a strong labor market will pressure mortgage rates to move higher, while any surprise weakness could help rates improve, although not likely by much.
• Fed meeting: Wednesday brings the Fed policy statement, where the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged but to signal that cuts are not likely until much later in the year. Powell's press conference after usually causes a strong reaction in mortgage rates.

I will post a scenario with actual rates sometime this week.

[i][/i]

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved lower -


Mortgage rates improved last week because markets grew more optimistic that the Fed was still committed to cutting rates later in the year despite inflation not falling much this year. Rates started improving after the Fed meeting on Wednesday when the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged and Fed Chair Powell made it clear that policy rate hikes were not yet on the table. Rates continued to improve through Friday's jobs data which showed the first clear sign of a softening labor market.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates not likely to change much -


This week is not likely to bring about much movement for rates after last week's big moves. Mortgage rates are now back to reflecting two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and traders will be waiting to see what next week's inflation data shows.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There is little economic data this week to affect mortgage rates, but some Treasury auctions this week could have a small effect, especially Wednesday's 10yr auction.
• Fed speakers: Fed members will be out speaking this week, and will likely reinforce the message that the Fed needs to hold rates steady until inflation shows signs of moving lower.